The letter

BFI 56.6 · Inflating · BFI-AI changed quadrant · 2026-10-30

Where the index stands

The BFI reads 56.6 of 100 (+1.1 since the 2026-09 reading), in the Inflating quadrant. Pressure, how stretched prices are, is 72.6; Trigger, whether they have started to crack, is 44.1.

These are the 2026-10 readings as of 2026-10-30; until a month closes they are month-to-date. Resampling its inputs puts the BFI between 51.5 and 61.2 (10th to 90th percentile).

The quadrants: Calm when both clocks are low, Inflating when Pressure is high, Shock when Trigger is high, Bursting when both are high.

The blocks

Highest in the BFI: Valuation 92, Issuance & speculation 86, Breadth 77. Lowest: Curve & policy 15, Trend 27, Credit 43. Each block is scored 0 to 100 against the history known at the time.

What the evidence says

20% fall within 12 months (monthly avg): the model's 5–95% range is 2–20%, against a base rate of 10%.

20% fall within 12 months (daily close): the model's 5–95% range is 5–40%, against a base rate of 16%.

The index is tested on about ten independent US crashes, so these ranges are wide.

The AI build-out

BFI-AI reads 75.6 (+22.5 since the 2026-09 reading), in the Bursting quadrant, changed from Inflating: Pressure 84.2, Trigger 67.9.

The next sealed quarter opens on 2026-11-16: 2026Q3, once the five hyperscaler 10-Qs are filed.

The desk

The paper book stands at $100,340, +0.34% on its $100,000 start. No real money.

The desk has made 34 calls; 0 have reached their twenty trading days, of the 150 needed before any conclusion.

Research, not investment advice. Every reader gets the same letter; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything. The numbers come from the public site and can be wrong. Get the letter · All letters